| 闫子怡,丁朋朋,闫佳贤,赵雅琪,王明珠,何怡香.基于博弈组合赋权-云模型的区域地热开发适宜性评价[J].地质找矿论丛,2026,41(1):69-80 |
| 基于博弈组合赋权-云模型的区域地热开发适宜性评价 |
| Suitability Evaluation of Regional Geothermal Development with Game Combination Weighting and Cloud Model |
| 投稿时间：2026-02-06 修订日期：2026-02-23 |
| DOI：10.6053/j.issn.1001-1412.2026.01.007 |
| 中文关键词: 地热资源 博弈论 云模型 适宜性评价 鲁西北平原 |
| 英文关键词:geothermal resources game theory cloud model suitability evaluation Northwest Shandong Plain |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“储层时空非均质性对砂岩热储多场耦合过程影响机理与开发模式优化”（42307272）、自然资源部天津中低温地热野外科学观测研究站开放课题“孔隙型热储开采适宜性评价及采灌模式研究”（TJDRYWZ-202407）、宁夏自然科学基金优秀青年项目“孔隙型地热开发渗流-传热-变形过程对储层非均质性的响应机理及其优化开采研究”（2024AAC05027）、宁夏大学水利工程“一流学科”建设项目（030900002602）联合资助。 |
|
| 摘要点击次数: 296 |
| 全文下载次数: 199 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 随着鲁西北地区城镇化加快，冬季供暖需求显著增长，传统能源供应趋于紧张。为保障能源安全与可持续发展，科学评估地热资源优势区域至关重要。本文以山东省鲁西北地区为研究对象，综合地温场特征、热储层特性、区域发展需求，采用变异系数-CRITIC-灰色关联度-投影寻踪的博弈组合赋权法,确定各项评价指标的综合权重，运用云模型处理评价中的模糊性与随机性，对比分析评价单元的实际云图和标准云图,确定适宜性等级，实现了区域地热适宜性分区评价。结果表明，研究区适宜性“较好”及以上区域分布在德州潜断陷、高唐潜断隆和故城-馆陶潜断隆；国民生产总值、热储温度和热储厚度是影响研究区地热开发适宜性的关键因子。研究成果可为区域地热资源勘查靶区优选提供一定的参考依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| With the acceleration of urbanization in northwest Shandong, the demand for heating in winter has increased significantly, and the supply of traditional energy tends to be tight. To ensure energy security and sustainable development, it is crucial to scientifically evaluate the advantages of geothermal resources. In this paper, the northwest Shandong Province is taken as the research object, and the comprehensive weight of each evaluation index is determined by combining the characteristics of the geothermal field, geothermal reservoir characteristics, and regional development needs, using the game combination weighting method of variation coefficient method, CRITIC method, gray correlation method, and projection pursuit method. By using the cloud model to sddress the fuzziness and randomness in the evaluation, the suitability grade is determined by comparing and analyzing the actual cloud picture with the standard cloud picture of the evaluation unit, thereby enabling regional geothermal suitability evaluation. The results show that the areas with “good” suitability in the study area are distributed in Dezhou latent fault depression, Gaotang latent fault uplift, and Gucheng-Guantao latent fault uplift. Gross national product, thermal storage temperature, and thermal storage thickness are the key factors affecting the suitability of geothermal development in the study area. The research results can provide a reference for optimizing the regional geothermal resources exploration target area. |
| 查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
| 关闭 |
|
|
|
